McCain vs. Obama

It had been semi-obvious since Wisconsin way back in February. And it had been overwhelmingly obvious since North Carolina and Indiana on 6th May. Yet it is only since my last day of blogging back about three weeks ago that the Clintons have finally, publicly, admitted that the game is over. There will be no Restoration of the Dynasty this year. And if not this year, probably never. Gotta admit, it really does feel good to live in a country that rejects such loathsome people, even if it did take 16 years to do it.

Which brings us to the November match-up between John McCain and Barack Obama. As I told a liberal/agnostic friend a few weeks ago, this is the first presidential election I have ever witnessed in which I actually might vote for the Democrat. Certainly, there has been no other Democratic nominee since Carter who offended me less than Obama does now. And there has been no other Republican nominee since Ford who inspired in me less confidence than McCain (Dole came close, very close, but not quite).

At this point, I honestly feel that both nominees have about an equal chance at victory in November. This is not what the bookmakers are saying. Intrade is quoting Obama with almost-- not quite, but almost-- 2:1 odds over McCain. Most of the others seem to be hovering in that 60-65% likelihood of an Obama victory. To me, that presumes an Obama-landslide, and I really am not feeling that. It seems to me that even if McCain waged a terrible campaign and all the wheels fell off the GOP wagon (even worse than now, I mean), I still think McCain would get 189 Electoral Votes. And just by running a conventional, competent, paint-by-numbers type of campaign, I think McCain would get 240. (All the states that rejected Kerry by at least 5.0%).

At this moment, I really do think that McCain would win Nevada, Ohio, and New Hampshire. That would put him at 269-- precisely half of the College. Figure, for the sake of argument, that Obama wins all the states that supported Kerry by at least 4.0%-- that's 190 Votes. Add in Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico and you're up to 221. Add in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and you're at 269. An absolute Electoral tie.

You know, that might actually happen.