There have been two recent surveys showing Obama with a national lead in the range of 12-15 points. Almost all others show Obama's lead in the range of 4-5 points. One reports a tie. My own suspicion is that Obama's lead is probably about 2 or 3 points. However that may be in reality, it seems to me that for both candidates, the selection of a VP-nominee and the nomination-acceptance speech will be the next Big Deal that the broader public chooses to pay any attention to.
In the selection of a running-mate, McCain has the huge advantage of getting to wait and see who Obama picks, and then making his own choice known afterwards. By all outward indications, he seems to most desire that choice to be either Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota, or else Thomas Ridge, the (former) Governor of Pennsylvania. I suppose neither man would be disastrous in that role, but I strongly urge McCain to select Christopher Cox, the current Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a former Congressman from Southern California, an aide in the second-term Reagan White House, and a clerk to a federal judge. Mr. Cox is 55 years old (56 in October). He has a joint MBA/JD from Harvard (ahem!). I believe he edited the Law Review. He is married with two-- I think it's two-- children. In 1978-79, he suffered temporary (6-8 months) paralysis from the chest down following an off-road auto-accident in Hawaii. Recovery was difficult, and even to this day he cannot remain seated for extended lengths of time; his own desk is set up so that he can continue work while standing.
Cox grew up in and around St. Paul, Minnesota. His family belonged to the Roman Catholic Church, and one Easter Sunday, Cox's toddler-age younger sister was killed when their father accidentally struck her with the family car while backing up in the driveway. He went to parochial schools, then to Southern Cal for undergrad. He is fluent in Russian, and actually published a daily translation of Pravda back in the '80s.
23 June 2008
"This aging world"
I meant to acknowledge it when I started, but let me point out now that the phrase "this aging world" is (of course) taken from the opening paragraphs of Umberto Eco's "The Name of the Rose," on the great publishing success-stories of the 1980s. The narrator, Adso of Melk-- a superfluous man, himself!-- utters the phrase near the end of his life.
I cannot remember when I made my first attempt to get through Eco's novel, but I know I made several unsuccessful attempts before I finally learned about-- and obtained-- a copy of a small paperback called The Key to the Name of the Rose: Including Translations of All Non-English Passages, by Adele Haft, Jane Giegengack White, and Robert J. White (Harrington Park, NJ: Ampersand Associates, 1987). Even with the invaluable assistance of the Key, getting through a book as difficult as Name of the Rose is still a month-long process for me. But a very enjoyable one.
I cannot remember when I made my first attempt to get through Eco's novel, but I know I made several unsuccessful attempts before I finally learned about-- and obtained-- a copy of a small paperback called The Key to the Name of the Rose: Including Translations of All Non-English Passages, by Adele Haft, Jane Giegengack White, and Robert J. White (Harrington Park, NJ: Ampersand Associates, 1987). Even with the invaluable assistance of the Key, getting through a book as difficult as Name of the Rose is still a month-long process for me. But a very enjoyable one.
18 June 2008
McCain vs. Obama
It had been semi-obvious since Wisconsin way back in February. And it had been overwhelmingly obvious since North Carolina and Indiana on 6th May. Yet it is only since my last day of blogging back about three weeks ago that the Clintons have finally, publicly, admitted that the game is over. There will be no Restoration of the Dynasty this year. And if not this year, probably never. Gotta admit, it really does feel good to live in a country that rejects such loathsome people, even if it did take 16 years to do it.
Which brings us to the November match-up between John McCain and Barack Obama. As I told a liberal/agnostic friend a few weeks ago, this is the first presidential election I have ever witnessed in which I actually might vote for the Democrat. Certainly, there has been no other Democratic nominee since Carter who offended me less than Obama does now. And there has been no other Republican nominee since Ford who inspired in me less confidence than McCain (Dole came close, very close, but not quite).
At this point, I honestly feel that both nominees have about an equal chance at victory in November. This is not what the bookmakers are saying. Intrade is quoting Obama with almost-- not quite, but almost-- 2:1 odds over McCain. Most of the others seem to be hovering in that 60-65% likelihood of an Obama victory. To me, that presumes an Obama-landslide, and I really am not feeling that. It seems to me that even if McCain waged a terrible campaign and all the wheels fell off the GOP wagon (even worse than now, I mean), I still think McCain would get 189 Electoral Votes. And just by running a conventional, competent, paint-by-numbers type of campaign, I think McCain would get 240. (All the states that rejected Kerry by at least 5.0%).
At this moment, I really do think that McCain would win Nevada, Ohio, and New Hampshire. That would put him at 269-- precisely half of the College. Figure, for the sake of argument, that Obama wins all the states that supported Kerry by at least 4.0%-- that's 190 Votes. Add in Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico and you're up to 221. Add in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and you're at 269. An absolute Electoral tie.
You know, that might actually happen.
Which brings us to the November match-up between John McCain and Barack Obama. As I told a liberal/agnostic friend a few weeks ago, this is the first presidential election I have ever witnessed in which I actually might vote for the Democrat. Certainly, there has been no other Democratic nominee since Carter who offended me less than Obama does now. And there has been no other Republican nominee since Ford who inspired in me less confidence than McCain (Dole came close, very close, but not quite).
At this point, I honestly feel that both nominees have about an equal chance at victory in November. This is not what the bookmakers are saying. Intrade is quoting Obama with almost-- not quite, but almost-- 2:1 odds over McCain. Most of the others seem to be hovering in that 60-65% likelihood of an Obama victory. To me, that presumes an Obama-landslide, and I really am not feeling that. It seems to me that even if McCain waged a terrible campaign and all the wheels fell off the GOP wagon (even worse than now, I mean), I still think McCain would get 189 Electoral Votes. And just by running a conventional, competent, paint-by-numbers type of campaign, I think McCain would get 240. (All the states that rejected Kerry by at least 5.0%).
At this moment, I really do think that McCain would win Nevada, Ohio, and New Hampshire. That would put him at 269-- precisely half of the College. Figure, for the sake of argument, that Obama wins all the states that supported Kerry by at least 4.0%-- that's 190 Votes. Add in Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico and you're up to 221. Add in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and you're at 269. An absolute Electoral tie.
You know, that might actually happen.
This Modern World
I know this technology has been widely-available for a good, solid 12-14 years now. And it was available to a more limited audience for a few years before that. But I can't help but get a sort of "gee, whiz" reaction every time I use it. Earlier today, for example, I sent and received an amount of information roughly equivalent to one or two volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica. In years past, that would have been a day-long chore. In decades past, that would have taken the whole week. But today-- 18th June 2008-- I did it in a matter of minutes. Seconds, really. And even someone as techno-illiterate as me was able to do it alone, with virtually no difficulty at all. Wow. Thanks, Mr. Gore. You've made my life a lot easier.
But I'm still glad you lost that election.
But I'm still glad you lost that election.
Father's Days, football coaches of the past.
Father's Day this year held a special significance for me. I can't remember when I have seen him so strong, so happy, so optimistic about life. Really, a wonderful thing to see. And other members of the family have noticed it, too. (How could they not?)
There were moments when it seemed very iffy if he would still be here as of now. So glad that he is. Also, the added time allows me to learn things about him that I never had known or heard about before. Like for instance-- I have always known he was a sports nut (how do you think I got this way?), but I never knew he had been to Columbus, Ohio, to watch the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. This was in the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler era, when that game really was the Main Event for those two states. He said that a friend invited him, and they simply flew up on a Saturday morning, and flew back down that night after the game. This was probably '72. Good times...
Speaking of old college coaches, I am suddenly compelled to announce that the three old-time coaches I most wish I had the pleasure of meeting were Jordan of Auburn, Dodd of Georgia Tech, and Hayes of Ohio State. With Jordan and Dodd, I find that I have almost a reverence for the way their lived their life. In the case of Jordan, especially, I think of him enduring cancer in those last years-- not unlike the Kennedy scenario playing out today. Hayes was a "different kettle of fish" as the Brits would say (and I actually did hear one say it, too, just a week or so ago). For one thing, such ultra-intensity could be more than a bit disturbing. And the sad way in which he shamed himself against Clemson in that 78 Gator Bowl. But all in all, he strikes me as a man from whom much -- much that was good and positive and true-- could be learned. You may know that Nixon gave his eulogy when he died in 1987. Another plus in my book.
There were moments when it seemed very iffy if he would still be here as of now. So glad that he is. Also, the added time allows me to learn things about him that I never had known or heard about before. Like for instance-- I have always known he was a sports nut (how do you think I got this way?), but I never knew he had been to Columbus, Ohio, to watch the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. This was in the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler era, when that game really was the Main Event for those two states. He said that a friend invited him, and they simply flew up on a Saturday morning, and flew back down that night after the game. This was probably '72. Good times...
Speaking of old college coaches, I am suddenly compelled to announce that the three old-time coaches I most wish I had the pleasure of meeting were Jordan of Auburn, Dodd of Georgia Tech, and Hayes of Ohio State. With Jordan and Dodd, I find that I have almost a reverence for the way their lived their life. In the case of Jordan, especially, I think of him enduring cancer in those last years-- not unlike the Kennedy scenario playing out today. Hayes was a "different kettle of fish" as the Brits would say (and I actually did hear one say it, too, just a week or so ago). For one thing, such ultra-intensity could be more than a bit disturbing. And the sad way in which he shamed himself against Clemson in that 78 Gator Bowl. But all in all, he strikes me as a man from whom much -- much that was good and positive and true-- could be learned. You may know that Nixon gave his eulogy when he died in 1987. Another plus in my book.
Still Here. And how about that Tiger!
I knew it had been a few days but I was a bit surprised to see that "30 May" was the most recent date... Well, what can I say? My life is busy. All in all, I prefer that to the alternative. But this little project here is important to me-- you might say, it is not superfluous-- and I will try to tune in a bit more frequently from here on.
What's on my mind right now? How about that amazing US Open!! ... Now, let's be clear: Even if Tiger Woods had not competed in this tournament, even if he had announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago and never picked up another club so long as he lived, his legacy was already ironclad. His status as the greatest golfer of his generation-- and of many other generations, too-- was already secured. But this latest triumph, somehow, does cast him in a new light. I am not a golf expert but I think I know something about the history of the sport, and I would honestly say that Woods now stands as one of the three men in golf's history-- along with Nicklaus and Jones-- whose legacy will be remembered, cherished, and debated for as long as golf is played. Who can say when or whether a fourth will ever be added to that roster. Yes, I know there are some huge names left off-- Palmer, Snead, Hogan, Player, just to name a few off the top of my head. But still, when it's all said and done, the greatness of those four just does not quite measure up to the greatness of the other three.
Just today, I hear that Woods will undergo knee surgery and forgo any competitive golf for the rest of this year. He is 32 years old. Even for a man who keeps himself in superior condition, the human body simply does not recover at 32 the same way it did at 22. We should not blithely assume that Tiger's future-- his future on the course-- will be as dominant as his past. and yet, I sure wouldn't bet against him, either!
What's on my mind right now? How about that amazing US Open!! ... Now, let's be clear: Even if Tiger Woods had not competed in this tournament, even if he had announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago and never picked up another club so long as he lived, his legacy was already ironclad. His status as the greatest golfer of his generation-- and of many other generations, too-- was already secured. But this latest triumph, somehow, does cast him in a new light. I am not a golf expert but I think I know something about the history of the sport, and I would honestly say that Woods now stands as one of the three men in golf's history-- along with Nicklaus and Jones-- whose legacy will be remembered, cherished, and debated for as long as golf is played. Who can say when or whether a fourth will ever be added to that roster. Yes, I know there are some huge names left off-- Palmer, Snead, Hogan, Player, just to name a few off the top of my head. But still, when it's all said and done, the greatness of those four just does not quite measure up to the greatness of the other three.
Just today, I hear that Woods will undergo knee surgery and forgo any competitive golf for the rest of this year. He is 32 years old. Even for a man who keeps himself in superior condition, the human body simply does not recover at 32 the same way it did at 22. We should not blithely assume that Tiger's future-- his future on the course-- will be as dominant as his past. and yet, I sure wouldn't bet against him, either!
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